Another Facebook exorcet

It is clear the Facebook IPO is going to get more and more messy.

It has come to light that Mark Zuckerberg unloaded 30.2 million shares on day one and banked $720 million. By the end of trading 3 days later the stock had slumped as we all know saving Marky boy $111 million had he had the good grace to wait a few days. The new word in the US for investors who lost out is ‘zucked’ as in you have been….

The  bigger question now comes from a serious analyst firm called StarMine, a Thomson Reuters division, whose claim is “Gain unparalled insight into equity data”. They have put a price on the stock at $9.40, which is a market cap of £25.7 billion. For any private investor this must be a shocking assessment from a leading independent analyst. If anywhere near the reality a $100,000 investment would be worth $24,737.

The Paul Simons Casio calculator arrived at $7.60 per share, or a market cap of $21.8 billion. I’m quite relieved a proper firm has come up with a valuation in the same ball park. My efforts took about an hour reviewing the IPO filing and then doing some basic maths. Goodness knows the level of fees Morgan Stanley charged to figure out an offer price of $38.

I have to believe they know stuff we don’t know otherwise how can StarMine have such a massive difference of opinion on the value of Facebook – they all do the same job and get paid shed loads accordingly. I’m in the wrong job!

Image: http://www.flickr.com/photos/jdlasica/7985194652


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